For decades, technologists and futurists debated whether computers would ever achieve human-level cognition. Today, that debate is over. The arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is no longer a question of if, but when. AGI is a fast-approaching milestone in the evolution of generative AI — most likely within the next five years or faster, according to AI experts.
When that happens, healthcare will transform. Medical AI systems will no longer be relegated to writing notes, drafting referrals or transcribing office visits. They will reason like humans without prompting or oversight. They will learn on their own and apply advanced logic across domains and specialties. And they will outperform humans on many of the tasks we consider central to our identity.
Understandably, many clinicians view these advances with concern, worried that technology could erode their autonomy or even their traditional role in medicine. Change is inevitable. But with physician leadership, these tools will support, not supplant, the human elements of care.
That’s the message I shared in Madison, Wisconsin, this week as the keynote speaker at WI Doctor Day 2025 — a unique, clinician-only event that brings together physicians and medical students from nearly 20 specialty organizations across the state. I’d like to thank Dr. Michelle Graham, the newly appointed President of the Wisconsin Medical Society, for her kind introduction and for leading this important event at such a pivotal moment in our profession’s history.
The theme of my talk was “The future of healthcare and the role generative AI will play.” But as I told the audience in Madison, the real story isn’t about the rise of technology. It’s about the opportunity physicians have to take back control of American medicine.
Why doctors will always matter
No matter how advanced the technology becomes, there are aspects of patient care that machines can’t supplant.
A patient newly diagnosed with cancer doesn’t just want data. He wants guidance, wisdom and a human presence — someone who feels his pain and understands the fear. An expecting mother concerned about her baby’s health doesn’t just want a statistical risk assessment spit out by a machine. She wants to be heard, seen and supported by someone who understands a parent’s intense emotion.
Study after study confirms it: patients crave human connection. They trust doctors, even when a chatbot provides identical advice.
And yet, the time constraints placed on today’s physicians are eroding this connection. The average patient visit lasts just 17 minutes, leaving barely enough time for acute diagnosis, let alone chronic disease management and empathy. In this environment, it’s not possible to deliver the level of personalized care patients need and deserve.
That’s where generative AI comes in: not as a replacement for physicians, but as a supplement for better care. However, to seize the opportunity, physicians will need to be willing to adopt the tools available today (ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude) and prepare for those coming tomorrow, including ones that possess artificial general intelligence (AGI).
I recently had an experience that shows just how far we’ve already come.
The power of partnership: AI and the human touch
A few months ago, I was wrapping up a podcast interview about my book ChatGPT, MD, when the host asked me a question.
“Dr. Pearl,” she said, “you’re a doctor and a skier. My husband wiped out on the slopes three months ago, slid 100 feet down the mountain with his arm over his head. His shoulder still hurts, and that arm is noticeably weaker than the other side. What do you think is wrong with him?”
Knowing she had never used generative AI for a medical concern, I suggested she log in to ChatGPT, enter her husband’s anonymized information, and then call me back.
Five days later, she called to thank me. ChatGPT had flagged the likely diagnosis of rotator cuff tear, recommended an MRI and suggested seeing an orthopedic surgeon “because he almost definitely needed a procedure.”
She shared that when the physician echoed the same concerns and ordered an MRI, she understood exactly what was happening. After surgery, the doctor told her that if they had waited another three months, the tendon might not have been reattachable due to muscle contracture.
She and her husband were grateful both for the technology and the human expertise. The experience was nothing like Googling symptoms and getting dozens of possible diagnoses. Instead, AI gave them clarity, specificity and personalized advice that helped them understand and accept the medical recommendations the surgeon provided.
That’s the potential we’re talking about. Not automation. Augmentation. Clinicians, using generative AI, can empower patients and thereby deepen the human bond, rather than breaking it.
How AGI changes the equation
Many physicians still view generative AI as a tool for documentation or administrative work. And while it excels at those tasks, that perspective is rapidly becoming outdated. As we move closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI), we need to recognize a fundamental shift: What was once a subservient digital assistant is now becoming a clinical partner.
Already, “narrow” AI systems outperform radiologists in certain types of image recognition. Moreover, in a study from Stanford and Harvard, generative AI models bested physicians in complex diagnostic reasoning, offering more accurate answers and better explanations. This is just a preview. What’s coming next will be far more transformative.
As these tools become integrated with wearable devices, they’ll be able to analyze data in real time — assessing whether chronic diseases are effectively controlled and suggesting medication adjustments long before a scheduled follow-up. They’ll empower patients by delivering tailored advice when new symptoms arise, providing clear diagnoses and offering timely recommendations to seek care when necessary. In doing so, AI will begin to operate within the very space clinicians have long considered their exclusive domain.
Leading the transition
For doctors, embracing the future of healthcare will require more than technical fluency. They’ll also need to lead a shift in how care is delivered and reimbursed.
Today, most clinicians and hospitals are paid based on the volume of care provided. The more patients they see, the more procedures they perform, the more they earn. It doesn’t matter whether these interventions add value.
In the future, providers of medical care will need to be rewarded for superior clinical outcomes. Unlike FFS, value-based models (particularly capitation at the delivery system, not insurance level) reward doctors for keeping patients healthy, successfully controlling chronic disease and preventing avoidable complications. These models give physicians more time with patients and more control over how care is delivered. But they also require something different: a willingness to take on shared financial risk, collaborate across specialties and participate in leadership decisions that shape the future of medicine.
At first glance, clinicians worry about the time needed to lead the process of change. But there’s an upside: if doctors succeed, they get more time with patients, fewer administrative distractions and greater fulfillment for the rest of their professional life.
For patients, the clinical upside is enormous. According to CDC data, better control of chronic conditions could prevent up to half of all heart attacks, strokes, cancers and kidney failures. But failing to embrace technology guarantees that today’s healthcare problems will only get worse: primary care doctors today need to work 26.7 hours per day to meet all evidence-based care recommendations while specialists have to spend several hours each day battling with insurance companies.
If you attended Wisconsin Doctor Day, I hope you left energized to lead this next chapter. Generative AI is doubling in power each year, and artificial general intelligence is fast approaching. The biggest obstacle to improving care or reducing burnout won’t be the technology itself — it will be whether we, as doctors, are willing to lead the way.
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Dr. Robert Pearl is the former CEO of The Permanente Medical Group, the nation’s largest physician group. He’s a Forbes contributor, bestselling author, Stanford University professor, and host of two healthcare podcasts. Check out Pearl’s newest book, ChatGPT, MD: How AI-Empowered Patients & Doctors Can Take Back Control of American Medicine with all profits going to Doctors Without Borders.
