The most common question I get asked as host of the podcast Coronavirus: The Truth is: When will everything return to normal? By “normal,” most people mean hugging their family members, attending concerts and sporting events, and shopping without a mask tightly looped around their ears. There’s no way to be certain, but I promised those who’ve asked that I’d seek the wisdom of the crowd.
In January 2021, I asked this readers of my Monthly Musings newsletter about when “normal” will return to our lives. Here’s how they responded to the following questions:
My thoughts on the results: Readers of Monthly Musings have a realistic (if perhaps more conservative) view of the challenges this pandemic poses going forward. More than half doubt a solution is coming in 2021 while 81% call for continued masking and social distancing until our nation reaches herd immunity.
There’s one wild card in all of this: Those mutant strains popping up around the world. Without their emergence, I would have been more optimistic that we could tilt the scales in our favor by mid-fall—vaccinating enough people so that the R0 (explained here) would be less than 1. Unfortunately, with these highly transmissible variants, the effectiveness of the current vaccines is likely to be lower and the goal posts for reaching herd immunity will be pushed back even farther.
If that happens, it might be 2023 or beyond before we return to any semblance of “normal.”
Thanks to all those who completed the survey. To participate in future surveys, and to access timely news and opinion on American healthcare, sign up for my free (and ad-free) newsletter Monthly Musings on American Healthcare.
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Dr. Robert Pearl is the former CEO of The Permanente Medical Group, the nation’s largest physician group. He’s a Forbes contributor, bestselling author, Stanford University professor, and host of two healthcare podcasts. Pearl’s next book, “Uncaring: How the Culture of Medicine Kills Doctors & Patients,” is available for presale now. Follow him on Twitter @RobertPearlMD.
Dr. Robert Pearl and Jeremy Corr,
I want to thank you both for your dedication, passion and always truthful information during the Coronavirus pandemic! I hope you know that you both have been a stabilizing, reassuring and voice of reason during this chaotic time! As a retired RN currently I feel that you always explained the ever changing data and misinformation in a way that even lay people could understand on many levels. You both shared facts that were discouraging at times but always introjected positive aspects to balance things out! I wish you both success in your efforts to upright this dysfunctional healthcare system! I wish I could wave a wand and have ~ 8-10 of the different healthcare professionals become contributors to the U.S.Healthcare Policy that we so need! Looking forward to your continued work and your new book too, Dr. Pearl. Best always, Marylou Barredo Wittenborn Retired RN