A recent article series looked back at the last five years of progress in U.S. healthcare (noting precious little had been made) and then looked ahead at the next five years (noting what improvements could be made if urgent action is taken). Last month’s survey asked readers to compare the current state of American healthcare with where you think we’ll be in five years. Here are the results:
My thoughts: I find the level of pessimism (a) higher than I would have predicted and (b) cause for concern. Perhaps readers are simply following the trendlines.
If life expectancy today is identical to two decades ago, then it’s logical to ask: “Why would it be any different in the future?” And if prices for hospital stays, health insurance and prescriptions are rising rapidly, why wouldn’t they continue to do so going forward? The same goes for physician burnout and patient satisfaction: If both have become worse over the past decade, why won’t patients and doctors grow more dissatisfied over the next?
As the late business professor and researcher Clayton Christensen observed, inertia is almost always present before industrywide disruption occurs. I believe healthcare will be the next example of this phenomenon.
And if change comes, the retail giants (Walmart, Amazon, CVS and others) are likely to be the force needed to disrupt healthcare. As retailers, they’ve managed to sell and deliver high-quality, affordable products—quickly, conveniently and with high customer satisfaction. Whether they’ll be able to translate those successes to healthcare remains to be seen. If they do, we are likely to see patient satisfaction rise but clinician fulfillment will decline even further.
Thanks to those who voted! To participate in future surveys, and for access to timely news and opinion on American healthcare, sign up for my free (and ad-free) newsletter Monthly Musings on American Healthcare.
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Dr. Robert Pearl is the former CEO of The Permanente Medical Group, the nation’s largest physician group. He’s a Forbes contributor, bestselling author, Stanford University professor, and host of two healthcare podcasts. Pearl’s newest book, “Uncaring: How the Culture of Medicine Kills Doctors & Patients,” is available now. All profits from the book go to Doctors Without Borders.
